U.S. Mortality Rate Now 7% Below Pre-Pandemic 2019 Level, Actuaries Find

The Society of Actuaries’ Quarterly Mortality Monitoring Report, published in October 2026 using CDC death data through June 2026, found the age-standardized U.S. death rate for the 12 months ending June 2026 was 92.9% of the comparable 2019 rate — meaning mortality is running about 7.1% below pre-pandemic levels.

A trend that keeps accelerating

The death rate for the April–June 2026 quarter alone was 2.5% lower than the same quarter in 2025, with every broad age group improving. The 20–49 age group saw the largest drop, 6.1% below a year earlier. The report notes the trailing 24-month improvement rate climbed to 4.0% for periods ending in March and June 2026, up from 1.7% for the period ending December 2025 — though it stops short of calling this a confirmed shift in the long-term trend.

Why the SOA tracks this so closely

The Society of Actuaries is the main actuarial body U.S. life insurers rely on for mortality assumptions, so a sustained move below 2019 levels is a meaningful signal for the industry, not just a headline statistic. The report describes its figures as preliminary, since recent death and population counts can be revised as more complete data comes in.

The report's age-standardized method matters here: it adjusts for the fact that the U.S. population is getting older on average, so a simple count of deaths would understate how much mortality risk has actually fallen at any given age. By holding the age distribution constant, the SOA's figures isolate the real improvement in survival odds rather than mixing it with demographic change — which is part of why the report describes a 7.1% decline as a genuine signal worth tracking quarter over quarter, not a statistical artifact of an aging population.

This data point pairs with the detailed breakdown we covered in CDC's 2024 life tables, which showed U.S. life expectancy reaching 79.0 years at birth along with wide survival gaps by sex and race — two different but related ways of measuring the same underlying improvement in survival.

What this means for coverage decisions

None of this changes what any individual household needs today; mortality improvement is a population-level trend, not a guarantee for any one person. But it is a useful reminder that a term policy with a fixed expiration date is making a bet on a horizon that keeps getting pushed further out, while permanent coverage is built to not expire at all. For readers weighing the two, our whole life and final expense pages, life insurance cost guide, and free calculator are good starting points.

Source

• Society of Actuaries — Quarterly Mortality Monitoring Report for the U.S. Population (2026 Q2)

Frequently Asked Questions

How much has U.S. mortality improved compared to 2019?

The Society of Actuaries found the age-standardized U.S. death rate for the 12 months ending June 2026 was 92.9% of the comparable 2019 rate — meaning mortality is running about 7.1% below pre-pandemic levels.

Which age group improved the most?

For the April–June 2026 quarter, every broad age group had a lower death rate than the same quarter in 2025, and the 20–49 age group saw the largest improvement, 6.1% below a year earlier.

Why does this mortality data matter for life insurance?

The Society of Actuaries is the main actuarial body U.S. life insurers rely on for mortality assumptions. As improvement continues, more people are living through years when a term policy would already have expired, into ages when permanent coverage is designed to still be in force.